History Suggests Arsenal’s Champions League Absence Will Boost Premier League Title Chances

We looked at previous Premier League seasons and champions in an effort to ascertain whether competing in the UEFA Champions League had a detrimental (or positive) effect on a team’s chances at the Premier League title. In particular, we did this to analyze whether Arsenal’s chances of English success would improve after failing to qualify for the UCL for the first time in 20 years.

Findings:

– Seven (28 per cent) of the 25 Premier League champions (since 1992-93) did not participate in the Champions League the season in which they won the English title.

– This was the joint-most popular “exit route” from the UCL for Premier League winners. Seven (28 per cent) of PL winners exited the UCL in the round of 16. The UCL quarter-finals were next, with four PL champions leaving the competition at that stage prior to winning the Premier League.

– Fifteen (60 per cent) of the 25 Premier League champions (since 1992-93) did not participate in the Champions League the season in which they won the English title.

– Neither of the past two Premier League champions were competing in the Champions League during their winning seasons – Leicester City (2016) and Chelsea (2017)”

Tracing back to the division’s rebranding in 1992, seven of the 25 Premier League champions—or 28 per cent of title winners—claimed the crown in seasons they were not participating in the Champions League.

Altogether, 15 of the 25 Premier League title winners fell out of the Champions League in the round of 16 or earlier, a 60 per cent share of the sample. This serves as further proof that save for those rarely talented outfits who can afford to do both, teams stand a better chance of Premier League glory if they exit Europe’s premier tournament earlier on—or don’t compete at all.

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2018-05-30
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