Andoni Iraola and Bournemouth continue to turn heads with recent results including eye-catching victories over both Manchester City and Tottenham. Casual football watchers may have wondered if they smash-and-grab efforts, but the latest expected goals (xG) data shows that Bournemouth’s results have been thoroughly deserved.
For those not completely familiar with terminology like expected goals and expected points, stats sites now rate every shot on goal to determine the quality of shots and ultimately who ‘deserves’ to win each match. Penalties are naturally given a larger chance of being scored than speculative long-range efforts, giving onlookers a better impression of which team was on top than relying purely on total goals figures.
The table below looks specifically at expected goals data from each Premier League team’s last six matches, where we see Bournemouth sitting proudly at the summit, ahead of more fashionable teams including Chelsea and Liverpool.
The task that lies ahead of Ruben Amorim is also clear to see, with Manchester United in the bottom three, despite scoring four goals against Everton recently. The Toffees themselves were only saved from finding themselves rock bottom by virtue of a dominant 4-0 victory over Wolves, but it remains to be seen whether that result was the exception rather than the rule going forward.
| Position | Team | xG |
| 1 | AFC Bournemouth | 16.55 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 15.34 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 13.19 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 12.31 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 11.57 |
| 6 | Tottenham | 11.05 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 10.63 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 10.03 |
| 9 | Brighton | 8.93 |
| 10 | Brentford | 7.83 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7.48 |
| 12 | West Ham | 7.37 |
| 13 | Leicester City | 7.34 |
| 14 | Wolves | 6.82 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6.69 |
| 16 | Ipswich Town | 6.61 |
| 17 | Fulham | 6.60 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 6.44 |
| 19 | Everton | 6.26 |
| 20 | Southampton | 5.58 |
Despite their recent form, and indeed their performances throughout the season, betting sites remain unconvinced when it comes to how Bournemouth’s season will eventually play out. A look at the latest Premier League betting odds has them ranking around 12th place, despite sitting just three points off a top four spot, and at least four points clear of the likes of Tottenham, Newcastle and Man Utd. Will it be stats or betting sites that are ultimately proved right when it comes to The Cherries’ fate in May? Only time will tell.
